Scott Dyer [HPN/NY]
(Top Gun)
07/09/17 10:44 AM
Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Saw this NYT article after crawling out of the woods yesterday:

https://nyti.ms/2tR7T1w

Documentary on History channel tonight 9PM EDT:

http://www.history.com/specials/amelia-earhart-the-lost-evidence


B. Butler (Oregonian)
(Top Gun)
07/09/17 06:31 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

Saw this NYT article after crawling out of the woods yesterday:

https://nyti.ms/2tR7T1w

Documentary on History channel tonight 9PM EDT:

http://www.history.com/specials/amelia-earhart-the-lost-evidence




Good article in the Daily Beast disputing this story. Basically poses the question, "why would the Japanese kill her?" It was in their interest to be viewed favorably in America, from which they were getting all the materiel to prosecute their war in China. What better way than to rescue America's Sweetheart?


Scott Dyer [HPN/NY]
(Top Gun)
07/09/17 06:48 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Bill -- It'll be interesting to see if the documentary deals with this in some fashion.

Randy Sohn
(Gradn Exlated Ordre of teh Fyling Fingres)
07/10/17 12:29 AM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

Bill -- It'll be interesting to see if the documentary deals with this in some fashion.




Just now finished watching it, got a question here for anyone who can answer cuz I'm really cautious, is "TIGHAR" somehow involved in this?

best, randy


Patty Haley
(AVSIG Member)
07/10/17 02:33 AM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Watching it now. Interesting.

Russell Holton
(AVSIG Member)
07/10/17 03:22 AM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

is "TIGHAR" somehow involved in this?




Quite the opposite. They're disputing it.

Pretty brutal analysis on thier forum. There's claims the photo is from 1940.


Russell Holton
(AVSIG Member)
07/10/17 04:22 AM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

Good article in the Daily Beast disputing this story.




I think you're talking about this one.

They do seem to make a good case.

I suppose an answer would be if the Japanese thought one of them knew something the Japanese really wanted to kept hidden. This might have been a decision by a lower-level leader that once made there could be no turning back.

Personally, I've never been a fan of the idea that EA had no "plan B" and ran out of gas looking for Howland Island. The History Channel is not the only ones to suggest that she had more fuel. The "low fuel" comment was more of a "time to change tactics" than a "I'm about to ditch".


Ralph Jones
(Top Gun)
07/10/17 09:23 AM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:


Quite the opposite. They're disputing it.




Of course they are: it's their rice bowl. Lawsuit in five...four...three...<g>.


Randy Sohn
(Gradn Exlated Ordre of teh Fyling Fingres)
07/10/17 09:37 AM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

Of course




Chuckle, my point - precisely!

best, randy


Stephanie Belser
(Top Gun APC)
07/10/17 12:59 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

Quote:

is "TIGHAR" somehow involved in this?




Quite the opposite. They're disputing it.

Pretty brutal analysis on thier forum. There's claims the photo is from 1940.




Yeah, well, take a gander at TIGHAR's 2014 tax return, especially Part I, line 12 (page 1), which lists their income, and Part VII, Section A (page 7), which shows who gets paid what.

That tell me all I care to know about TIGHAR.


Rick Durden
(Top Gun)
07/10/17 01:42 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

That hypothesis isn't new. In the 1960s there was supposedly some evidence, including a picture, that had her in the Marshalls. It was refuted effectively back then, notably how far off course she would have had to have been from early in the flight. However, the position reports and witnesses of her flying over during the earlier parts of her flights had her on course for Howland.

Randy Sohn
(Gradn Exlated Ordre of teh Fyling Fingres)
07/10/17 01:49 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

[That tell me all I care to know about TIGHAR.




Chuckle, yup, I've heard many terms used to describe them but I'd have a hard time thinking of a way that's lower than "whale ----" to descibe them!

best, randy


Patty Haley
(AVSIG Member)
07/10/17 03:00 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Good detective work Stephanie! They are close, but still, no cigar. I don't recall she having enough reserve fuel for another airport. Until they find real evidence, I am concluding they went down at sea. Interesting picture however.

Patty


Randy Sohn
(Gradn Exlated Ordre of teh Fyling Fingres)
07/10/17 03:09 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

enough reserve fuel for another airporty




Chuckle, still remember my first time out in the Pacific. Going somehere (forget now where) with the VC-54. First time I'd experienced entering a "2 hours of holding" on the DD-175 flight plan's alternate block.

best, randy


Scott Dyer [HPN/NY]
(Top Gun)
07/10/17 05:13 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

That hypothesis isn't new. In the 1960s there was supposedly some evidence, including a picture, that had her in the Marshalls. It was refuted effectively back then, notably how far off course she would have had to have been from early in the flight. However, the position reports and witnesses of her flying over during the earlier parts of her flights had her on course for Howland.




Hi Rick - i'm not fully conversant with the position reports that were made on route, but from the incredibly repetitive show last evening it appeared to me that the last position report was many hours prior to when they should have arrived at the destination. At least, that was a position report that was made by visual means and not through either dead reckoning or by other onboard but non-visual techniques. The conjecture about how the Plan B was to fly due West after not finding Howland and hopefully making landfall on a north-South chain of atolls was interesting.


Ralph Jones
(Top Gun)
07/10/17 06:51 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

from the incredibly repetitive show last evening



Didn't see it, but that's par for the course these days in the cable-TV docu business. You're assumed to be channel surfing around the commercials, so each program segment has to start off by recapping the last one.

For an extreme case, watch an Impossible Engineering and count the number of times you see the exploding-view animation.


Richard Palm (PAO)
(Top Gun)
07/10/17 08:10 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

Good detective work Stephanie! They are close, but still, no cigar. I don't recall she having enough reserve fuel for another airport. Until they find real evidence, I am concluding they went down at sea. Interesting picture however.

Patty




They claimed that she would have had four hours of fuel left at the time that they think she gave up on trying to find Howland. I checked the distance from Howland to Mili Atoll, where they think she landed, and it's about 766 NM, which would have required a ground speed of 192 knots to reach in four hours. However, if they're right that she was blown to the north by winds different from the forecast, then that distance would be inaccurate.

Distance as Measured on Skyvector (For convenience I measured to a current airport near where they think she landed.)

If anyone's interested and didn't get a chance to see it last night, it can be watched on the History Channel Web site until August 14th:

http://www.history.com/specials/amelia-earhart-the-lost-evidence


Russell Holton
(AVSIG Member)
07/10/17 10:16 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

If you want an anlysis by someone else who favors the turn back theory (but a different landing place), you can check this page.

He's suggesting the winds from the east where higher than forecast. They were far west of Howland when they went searching. But those winds would have sped them back.


Stephanie Belser-2
(Top Gun APC)
07/10/17 10:54 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

the incredibly repetitive show last evening




Did everyone forget about Al Capone's Vault?


Patty Haley
(AVSIG Member)
07/11/17 06:12 AM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?



Thanks Richard, definitely a possibility.


Ralph Jones
(Top Gun)
07/11/17 07:10 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

...and a Japanese blogger has found the picture published in a 1935 travelogue. Oopsie.

Richard Palm (PAO)
(Top Gun)
07/11/17 07:38 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Quote:

...and a Japanese blogger has found the picture published in a 1935 travelogue. Oopsie.




Here's a link to the actual book. The photo appears on page 99. Page 113 is said to contain the date of publication, but it's in Japanese.

http://dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/1223403


Russell Holton
(AVSIG Member)
07/11/17 08:06 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

Interesting. But the program brought up a number of other points that shouldn't be discarded with the photo.
Specifically the memory of the people and their stories. While it doesn't rise to the level of proof, I do think they need an explanation.


Richard Palm (PAO)
(Top Gun)
07/11/17 11:32 PM
Re: Picture of Earhart in Marshall Islands?

I agree. Photo or no photo, I would need a good reason if I were going to disregard the various eyewitness accounts.


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